The Great Game Theory Guide: #16 How to Prevent a Bank Robbery, Your Bank Robbing You!
Q. Lewis, I read that you are a futurist who uses applied game theory to make predictions. Where do you get the information you need to predict what is likely to happen and create winning game-based strategies to solve problems?
A. I have been a futurist for over 50 years. I don’t mean a psychic and I don’t mean someone who thinks about what the future might be. I’m talking about someone who uses predictive analytics, probability theory, statistical analysis, and other key scientific tools in addition to intuition to predict what is likely to happen in a certain time and a certain place involving certain people.
By photos for class
Now, before I answer your question it might be helpful if we begin with a short introduction to the basics of game theory. Below is an article (a 6-minute read) as well as a more in-depth video embedded in the article. Both were created so they would be understood by 12-year-old.
Using all of the gaming skills you have learned from the sandbox, through Rubick’s Cube, and now into video games and sports will change your life in every way, for the better.
The Article: Click on the title ‘the Best Introduction…’ just below.
A. Now to answer your question. My process as a futurist comes out of my studies of Applied Game Theory. Most futurists don’t really think about Game Theory. They play around with other predictive tools and maybe they’re right and maybe they’re wrong. Some of the best ones will probably be accurate 20% of the time, and these are the good ones. Any skilled Game Theory-based futurist knows how to integrate black swans events, Butterfly Effect, pattern language, constraint isolation, tipping points, Behavioral Economics, Bayesian probability, and all of the other ideas that I have integrated into classical game theory, to create my system, which I call HAGT –Harrison’s Applied Game Theory.
Let’s break it down a bit. A computer scientist, the type of professional I often hire to help me predict the future, uses a metaheuristic, a very high-level procedure designed through trial and error to find, generate, or select a partial search algorithm that may provide a sufficiently good solution to an optimization problem, especially with incomplete or imperfect information. In computer science, a search algorithm is an algorithm for finding an item with specified properties among a collection of items that are coded into a computer program, that look for clues to return what is wanted. As stated for a five-year-old, a meta-heuristic algorithm is a system to help you find a needle in a haystack!
In my work the essential skills required to use a meta-heuristic algorithm is to;
1. know the problem that needs solving,
2. have an idea of what the constraints or obstacles are that need to be removed or compensated for in order to solve the problem,
3. realize there are essential variables including pieces of information missing that will prevent you from finding the solution using traditional problem-solving tools, such as graphs, data trees, off the shelf decision-science software.
So when I get a gig, where the client wants me to be more accurate in my predictions than whoever claims to be the best futurist in the world, I make a few calls, bring my real mission impossible team together, including my computer scientist buddy and we get to work. We do some kaizen, bodystorming, brainstorming, and other collaborative intelligence mind exercises. We seldom do any Best Practices, too old school.
Usually, in a week or two, we give the clients ten or twenty options to choose from based on how the game has changed since we started the process. Sort of a Nash Equilibrium meets mixed strategies, meets a worst-case scenario.
With the right skills, the right team, and a collaborative working model it is easier to be more accurate than any other person trying to predict the future. No one is ever 100 %. Even if your competition is correct 10%of the time you will look like a genius if you are only right 50% of the time.
If you are still a bit confused about how to apply game theory in your daily life watch the video below, Just click on the URL.
By Day Dream
We offer a customized and personalize Course in Harrison’s and Holistic Applied Game Theory: Become more effective, efficient, productive, innovative, and self-aware.
Study Applied Game Theory A-Z and Beyond…2.2.
By Lewis Harrison
Click on this URL link below and explore the course…
To follow all of my Great Game Theory Guide postings and stories, check out the full Table of Contents at https://lewiscoaches.medium.com/lewis-harrisons-great-game-theory-guide-table-of-contents-467b76a47ee3
About the Author: Lewis Harrison, is a speaker a strategist specializing in Applied Game Theory Strategies and Personal Improvement
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